199: Turbine or Too Good To Be True? Crazy Wind Turbines

On today’s episode of Still Want to Be Determined, we’re going to talk about wind turbines, we’re going to talk about Texas, and we’re going to talk about Well, it being a new year, welcome to 2024, everybody. As I say that it’s still 2023, but not enough to hold on to. So I’m just going to embrace it. Yeah.

Welcome everybody to the future. How are you doing, Matt? I’m doing pretty

well. Um, I don’t know how your break has been. We were talking just before the call about how like time has very little meaning right now. Like both Sean and I kind of took the week off in between Christmas and New Year’s. And like a couple of days ago, it’s like.

Is it Wednesday? Is it Thursday?

What is happening right now? For me, it’s been, I traveled as well over that break and by the third day of being away, Yeah, you could have said it was blurbs day and I would have been like, yep, good old blurbs day. It’s just, none of it made any sense. So welcome everybody to Still to be Determined.

As usual, I’m Sean Ferrell. I’m a writer. I wrote some sci fi, I write some stuff for kids. And with me is my brother, Matt. He’s that Matt of Undecided with Matt Farrell, which takes a look at emerging tech and its impact on our lives. And that’s the intro that I normally do right at the top, but I neglected it because we took time off and I’ve lost my mind a little bit.

So as I mentioned at the beginning of the video or the podcast, depending on which medium you’re taking this in. We’re going to be taking a look at Matt’s most recent video, which has to do with a novel wind turbine design. But before we get into that, I like to go back through the mailbag, through the previous comments on older episodes and older episodes of Matt’s main channel.

To see what you guys are talking about most recently. So from our previous episode, there was a comment. This was on our discussion about solar recycling. Matt, you’ll remember had traveled to Odessa, Texas and seen a solar recycling plant in action, the first of its kind. And we had a bit of a discussion around the EU laws regarding.

Recycling and what they do. And our discussion, just to kind of wrap it up real quickly was effectively, we were, Matt was making the point that there is some resistance to that law because it sets such a low bar that it kind of makes people just kind of put their hands up. And there was this comment from Animaniac who wrote about that criticism.

Not having to do anything and just having dump on a landfill as a baseline cannot be better than the EU law. One core advantage for the EU laws, at least here in Germany, is that people are used to bringing their e waste to specialized facilities, not back to the manufacturers, but indirectly financed by them.

That sort and aggregate them If you have financially viable recycling available, it is certainly much easier to plug that to an existing infrastructure than to start from landfill. So, good comment Animaniac, thank you for dropping into the comments. Matt, did you have anything you wanted to say in response to that?

Yeah, no, I don’t disagree with that statement at all.

Um, I hope that’s not what came through in the previous conversation. Cause it’s like, it’s better than nothing. It’s like we don’t want to have it so you just dump the stuff in the landfill. Yeah. But at the same time, the point that Uh, Suvi was making when he was talking to me about it was it kind of stifles innovation because there’s, from a business point of view, there’s no incentive to get better at it.

So it’s kind of like you’re kind of, it’s got catch 22. If you don’t do anything, you’re risking the fact that you’re going to be dumping everything into landfill. But then if you do this, you might actually have a slight chilling effect on companies willing to go above and beyond to try to make. Uh, even better.

So there’s a fine line, you’re trying to find that line to dance along. Um, and it’s like the United States, which is like a free for all, not advocating for that. But at the same time, I thought it was a, uh, a really good point that Suvi brought up. And it’s also a great point that Animaniac

brings up too.

Yeah. It’s, I mean, that’s the razor’s edge that we’re always dancing along and a lot of these conversations is for better or worse, we operate in a capitalist. Landscape. And that brings with it, there needs to be motivation from some angle. Somebody needs to say, okay, this is worth my time and effort. And recycling programs in the U.

S. by and large have sought such a low impact. Approach that they end up being easy to ignore. And that’s what we struggle with here. Like you buy, I go buy a can of soda. I’m, I’m spending five cents on a deposit on that can is the five cents worth my time. No, it absolutely is not. So I take those cans and instead of putting them just in the garbage, I do.

Curbside recycling, but I’m not reclaiming that 5 cents. I’m just putting in there and I actually put it in there knowing that there are people who will go down the street and collect those cans and bottles that are worth 5 cents out of people’s recycling. So we’ve created this kind of weird cottage industry.

Of, yeah. There are people who have so little income that going through the bags is worth their time. Whereas somebody else says, it’s not worth my time to even take it back to the grocery store, even though I go back to the grocery store . And if you do go back to the grocery store, at least in some areas, it’s even hard to find places that do take the can, so it’s this kind of weird, yeah.

Like we know what we’re supposed to be doing, we try to do what we’re supposed to be doing. It doesn’t always work out that way. But if you mandated a higher standard, there’s extreme pushback. And there was that pushback years ago when it was suggested, get rid of plastic bags. They finally did it here in New York city.

And when it was finally implemented, it was. So seamless. It just felt like, okay, yeah, no more plastic bags. Then we get paper or you bring a bag with you and it makes so much sense. But there was so much resistance to change. And I think that combination of capitalist motivation and resistance to change.

Combined becomes a sledgehammer that just keeps us from making positive changes that would actually lead to some of these things that we’re talking about. The, what does it take to get people to take electronics to a recycling center? Instead of just saying, Oh, this laptop is broken. I wiped it. I’m going to chuck in the garbage.

Well, the

one thing about that five cent on the can thing that I find interesting is that started like when we were kids and Sean and I are, we’re old, uh, so this goes way back, uh, and there was no recycling at your house, like there was no recycling truck, but then I’m in high school, college, and suddenly every house has a blue recycling bin so you can actually start recycling at home, but they never changed the motivation of that nickel that goes on every can.

So it’s like, that’s part of the reason why today it’s like, well, I don’t care about that nickel. Just check out my recycling bin because it’s still going to get recycled that way. And I don’t have to go to the store, but they never updated the policy to say, maybe we don’t need to deposit on cans anymore.

So it’s kind of. Interesting policy from 30 plus years ago that may not be necessary anymore, but it’s, it’s, it’s a good policy.

And again, to go back to, yeah. And to go back to something that we deal with here in the U S, um, we are 50. Separate states that make up the nation. So that 5 cent deposit isn’t consistent.

And there are some states where it is higher and there are some states where it doesn’t exist. So depending on where you go in the, in the U S you might be driving down the road and see cans on the side of the road because they are literally not worth anything to anybody there. But if you went to the neighboring state, they’re all worth five or 10 cents.

So also in the comments of previous episodes from Matt’s previous episode. Which was on recycling solar panels and the new plant in Texas that he had visited. There was this comment from KRKTEV, who jumped in to say, Great video. Fire. Muscle. 100. For your information, I work there. Muscle. Thank you, KRK. I wonder if you were there when Matt was, was, uh, filming.

He might’ve been . There was also this comment from Tel Guten who said, most of the tossed solar panels are still 80% good enough and usable for homes instead. That was something we talked about in our conversation is that, yeah, the recycling plant is. Looking at usability of the panels, Matt made a point of they’re not breaking down panels that still have a decade of life left in them.

Um, it makes this kind of operation kind of a consolidation of two different, um, outputs. One output being the recycling itself and the other output. Output potentially being a place where that secondary market could get even deeper roots because I think there are probably a good number of people who wouldn’t know where to go to get secondary panels or might not know where to go to get rid of used panels.

And so this kind of operation seems like a perfect two birds, one stone sort of situation.

Yeah, it’s kind of like a used car market. It’s still kind of maturing, but it’s growing. That secondhand solar panel market is getting pretty, pretty large. And if you want to get into solar and get into it really cheap.

Go into the secondhand market. You can get great panels for next to no money and get up and running

really quick. Uh, when you say next to no money, what is next to no money? Like what is a top tier panel? What is a top tier panel? If you were to be like, the cost is cost means nothing to me. I wipe my, my nose with a hundred dollar bills.

So I’m going to get the best, best panels. What would you be spending?

Imagine, imagine you’re spending four to five hundred dollars on a brand new panel and then you go into the second hand market and what if you could get a panel that still has 15 years of life left for 65 bucks, 100 bucks. So you could more than cut your cost in half or by 70 percent in some cases depending on what you’re looking at.

Um, It’s there’s some incredible bargains out there from really good panels that still have a lot of life left.

For 65 bucks per panel. I don’t know why I don’t just own a panel to have it. Just like lean it up against the wall back here. There’s a little bit of sunlight that comes to that window. Why not?

I can charge my phone with it. There was also this comment from Ravenloon who says I must have missed the bit where you told us how much the recovered materials of the recycled panels sold for. In other words, is it even possible to recycle the old solar panels for profit? It seems to me that is where the future rests.

In a capitalist economy, the bottom line is always about how much we can make, not how responsible we can be. Yeah, Ravenloon, that was a, that was a main thrust of. of Matt’s video that the recoverable materials have great value and not only do they have value in and of themselves, like aluminum has the value of the aluminum, but there’s also the savings on the cost of actually going and finding and making more aluminum.

So you’re cutting. Yeah. From both sides, effectively, the material is itself valuable, and you’re cutting out a lot of the pre material cost. And that adds to the savings for. Potential for future use.

Part of the reason I didn’t go into the specific numbers is it’s none of the recycling companies, whether you’re talking about battery company, battery cycling, or solar recycling, ever give you the exact cost of what it costs them to recycle.

The material they always get couch it.

No company would ever do that. No company is ever going to tell you exactly. If you’re, if GE was like, it costs us $58 to make this refrigerator, but we’re going to charge you $600 for it. You’d be furious.

Exactly. So, so regardless of that, the fact that every single one of these companies I’ve talked to says, don’t worry.

We’re going to be making money is along the lines, but they also say it’s highly dependent on the cost of the materials on the open market. So it’s like, I could give you numbers in a video and a week later they’re completely meaningless because even though they may have a more fixed cost for the recycling cost, how much is silver going on the market today versus next week versus next year?

So it’s like the cost of silver, the cost of silicon, the cost of whatever recycled glass, it’s like all that stuff fluctuates wildly. So it’s, it would be very hard for me to give you an estimate, but the bottom line from Suvi was they’re at that like 15 per panel right now. And it sounds like they’re on the, either they already are slightly profitable or they’re on the cusp and the new techniques they have that they’re working on right now are going to make that even.

cheaper, so it’s like their profit margins in theory could become bigger and bigger and bigger as they go

The difficulty also becomes when you’re selling a commodity. The more of it that you have, and try to sell, you’re actually driving the price down. So it ends up being, you want to time your entry into the market and you want to limit your impact on the market. So it’s like figuring out what time of year silver is going to be selling for the most and not flooding the market with your reserves of silver so that you drive the price down too much.

It’s this weird math that just constantly is in motion and it’s why. Yeah, go ahead.

This is a little tangent, because suddenly I’m going to be talking about space, uh, but I’ve been watching this TV show, For All Mankind, and in the most recent season, it’s all about them trying to capture an asteroid that is full of, I think it’s iridium, and it’s something they need for the future of humanity, and there’s so much iridium in this asteroid, it’s going to change the trajectory of humanity forever, and it’s something like, they estimate it’s like two trillion dollars worth of iridium.

I’ve talked about space mining in another video and one of the things I find fascinating about it is when they talk about all those asteroids that’s two trillion dollars worth of iridium based on today’s market which has limited iridium but now you’re talking about an asteroid that has five times the amount of iridium on earth it’s not two trillion dollars that’s not what it’s worth because as soon as you bring that back and start bringing on earth you just tank the market so you have to be very careful about how you’re trickling it in how much you’re actually mining and yeah it’s I just find it fascinating it’s such a weird Commodities are bizarre.

Once we started on a space tangent, it’s hard to get me back off of a space tangent, but this is so related to what you just talked about. I don’t know how can I, I can avoid it. Did you read the news recently that there are now space mining companies? Oh, yeah. That are planning on going up and doing things.

And there’s one company in particular that says they’re very close to actually like targeting a specific asteroid, but they’re now treating that information of which asteroids as proprietary corporate knowledge. So they aren’t telling anybody which asteroid they’re going to. What’s a race? And I find that fascinating because that goes right back to, I mean, it literally is like the 1849ers.

Gold Rush. Yeah. It literally is just like people are now just trying to get into space to get to those asteroids to plant a little flag. And then somebody else is going to send their little spaceship out and the spaceship is going to land on the same asteroid and plant its little flag. And how long before people start putting little weapons on their space Yeah.

Equipment so that they can be shooting each other. I’m like, we’re reinventing the Wild West. It’s just in space. It’s really, I mean, just mind mind blowing for me, especially for my sci fi brain where I’m just like, well, that’s great.

On now to discussion about Matt’s most recent. This is from December 19th, 2023. That’s right. Last year, this crazy wind turbine may be the future of wind energy. This wind turbine. I mean, somebody points out, you keep comparing this wind turbine to the horizontal axis, meaning yes, a standard like long tower, large tower with the propeller on top, the axis is horizontal because it’s going this way and that the direction of the propeller spin correct goes around that.

Somebody pointed out in the comments, why is this not called simply a vertical axis? Because that is what, this is the, instead of the. Propeller going around this way. It is a bunch of blades going in a circle, like a dinner plate. So it is in effect a vertical axis. I think that’s, I mean, that’s, that’s a little bit of semantics, semantics that may or may not evolve in the industry, but that’s like somebody pointed at that out in the comments.

So I wanted to visit that really quickly, but the thing about this design is that it is separating a central hub, turning it into effectively what looks like a model railroad. There is a track. There are these blades that move around the track. There’s something about an oval design that catches the wind differently to keep things moving in the right way.

I imagine it has to do with amount of wind resistance at certain points to keep pressures going the right direction and similar to the way a sailboat can sail against the wind. If it angles itself properly, these blades are doing something in that vein. It keeps this far lower to the ground. It keeps it from having exorbitant building costs, as Matt’s videos have often pointed out with traditional, uh, the horizontal access towers.

I mean, it’s right there in the word, towers. You’ve got massive bases. The propellers themselves, the blades themselves are. Huge. There’s one shot in one of your videos that you had where it looks effectively like people are standing next to a football field, but it is stacked bases of these, these, these turbines.

They are so large as to be larger than the Eiffel tower. And in this video, Matt shared the information that in China, there is. An ongoing attempt to build a 50 story wind turbine, 50 stories. I mean, like that’s heaven help anybody if that comes down. Um, well, I keep going, like, as soon as I saw that in the video, I flashed back to, there was a fire in a skyscraper that was built in Shanghai and it turned out that the, the regulation and the cutting of corners is pretty rampant in building in.

Certain parts of the world, and this skyscraper had been made with untreated, non fireproofed wood. And when this fire broke out, the tower was not yet being lived in. It was to be an apartment building. And it was speculated that somebody involved in building the tower burnt it down. Simply to keep the tower from ever being lived in, because they knew if a fire ever breaks out in this, it’s going to go up like a box of matches, and that’s exactly how it went up.

It went up with temperatures that went up to like a thousand degrees, and the fire gutted the building so quickly, that within ten minutes, this thirty story building looked like a Roman candle. It was Awe inspiring. And thankfully, nobody was killed because it was not yet lived in.. So when you say a 50 story spinning blade, my first thought was like, oh boy.

And like, I hope it’s built the right way. This created a lot of interesting conversation in the comments. Like this From John G, who wrote, as a mechanical engineer, I see some potential issues with this design. One of them is how the blades would react to turb, turbulent winds. I can see the blades twisting and the track twisting and really stressing the pulley system and even potentially hitting the vertical support towers.

Have a single midpoint track, does not have much resistance to twisting. There are plenty of moving parts here that would require upfront CAE analysis and thorough development testing to determine how long it would last and the conditions it would be able to survive. High winds, high and low temperatures, ice, et cetera.

So the company that you were talking about in particular has been doing their testing in, was it Wyoming or Montana? Wyoming. I think it was

Wyoming.

Wyoming. Uh, it gets cold in Wyoming, high winds in Wyoming, like, do you know of anything regarding their testing that has demonstrated the kinds of impacts that John raises in his question?

Have they? Share any information publicly like we know this works in the middle of winter. We know this is fine in high winds and even changing winds in storms, nothing happens. They have not shared anything. We have, we

were, when we looked and dug into this, we didn’t find anything on that at all. Um, the company is pretty, it’s not shocking.

It’s a new company. Kind of just came out of stealth. They’re still playing a lot of stuff close to the vest, which I understand, but those questions, I mean, that, that comment is like spot on. There are so many engineering questions that are just gaping holes in how they’ve explained how their tech works and their public documentation.

And there’s nothing about what they’re seeing from the results. Most of their testing was done from what I understand, like indoors. And they do have the pilot one that’s on the outside like in Wyoming, but it’s very limited. And so like, I think they’re entering that territory now where they’re going to be rolling up more pilot tests in more rigorous conditions to really start to work out the kinks of questions like that.

So I have a feeling that’s probably why there’s not a lot of information out there. At this point, um, I hope they start releasing that information

because yeah, that’s a

big

question mark. There was also this comment from Mac V Humbat who wrote a regular turbine can generally last at least 20 years.

Many around where I live have worked well for over 30 years at this point. This point is mentioned in the video, but I would like to see how long a track system such as the one shown here is going to last. These tracks, when used in the industrial applications I have seen, are regularly lubricated and maintained and operate in factories, which compared to a field in a windy area is relatively clean.

I think dust and dirt buildup will make scrap out of those tracks in a few years without regular cleaning and maintenance. We’ll see, but I doubt it will add up to much. The maintenance is in the same camp as everything you just talked about regarding like. Design specs around like surviving the environment, like simple maintenance here seems like a big head scratcher and adds I’m sure to the sense of how is any of this going to manifest?

And it takes me back to the also rams that you mentioned in your video. Do you know any details about the model that looks so similar to this one? What was it that pulled that apart?

We, I don’t know. I don’t know exactly what the, the death knell was for that exact implementation, but it didn’t work out for probably many of the reasons these engineers were bringing up in the comments that the track may have been the big problem.

There was too much friction. There was too much gunking up of the works and it just was not going to be a viable thing, which raised the question on what this new company is doing. Are they doing something different with their track? Is it less likely to become gunked up? by stuff in the works. Gigantic questions.

Part of the reason, like, for me, this video was kind of a challenge because I am highly, highly skeptical of this company. But the reason I still made it And talked about it was the potential if they really have kind of figured this out and it works, it’s just how much simpler it will be to set these devices up than a gigantic wind turbine, how much cheaper it will be to set these things up.

So even if the lifespan, let’s say is half the length of a typical. Gigantic wind turbine. If it’s like a third the cost, it’s like, it doesn’t matter. You’re replacing it every 15 years versus every 30 years, because it’s still cheaper than that gigantic one. And it’s way quicker to roll out. So it’s like the pros may outweigh the cons.

So a lot of the cons the engineers are bringing up is like, yeah, these are questions we need to know about, but at the same time, it may not matter. In the grand scheme of things, if it works out the way it does. And so for me, that’s why I was kind of keeping an open mind looking at this company, even though there were gigantic engineering question marks and the past of similar devices is kind of littered with like failures.

It doesn’t mean that the idea is a downer. It just means the previous implementations may have not been figured out the exact issues. Um, I did want to bring up, there’s, um, an engineer who has a YouTube channel. His name’s Robert Murray Smith. Um, he does great videos where he kind of just like takes these engineering ideas and he tries to do it himself and see what, what it’s like and does it actually work.

And he’s done it with sand based heat batteries. He’s done it with all this kind of stuff. And most recently he’s been on a kick with these wind turbine designs and he has a couple videos out recently about this design where he’s done his own version of it and 3d printed and done different things and created like instead of having a single track, he has a dual track system that’s basically, it looks like a.

bike chain and it just goes around and he just took a fan and put a fan on it and it, that sucker that he built cranks. And he was like laughing like a little kid. He’s like, it works. It’s really good. This is great. So it’s, if he was able to do that in his. Like just garage, literally. Yeah. It’s like, I, that for me watching him get like, giddy like a school boy playing with his version of it, um, gives me a little ray of hope for stuff like this.

Right. Again, so many engineering questions and I’m not an engineer. So it’s like, and as a non engineer, I was asking myself a lot of these questions. So when engineers are going, Whoa, wait a minute. It’s like, you kind of have to kind of pump the brakes a little bit and hopefully not get overly excited, but I want to make sure we’re not.

Dumping on this because it may, it may work and if it works, this could be a huge, huge game changer. If it does work. And you,

I think your yardstick there is a really good one, which is, okay, this may not last as long and it may need more fine tuning and more care. And you set up a wind turbine out on what looks like an oil rig in the middle of the North Atlantic and then you get back on your boat and you go back home.

Maybe this means this kind of wind turbine requires a couple of people on site to make sure it doesn’t suddenly, the track goes off or something breaks and needs to be repaired or replaced. But even the cost of like one blade on a, on a horizontal axis wind turbine, the cost of replacing one blade is going to be, I can’t even imagine how much it would be.

One section of track on something that’s roughly the size of maybe a football field. Is potentially going to be far, far cheaper and faster to repair. So things like that are a really good thing to keep in mind that yes, this may be a little bit like, well, if you bought a car, you could drive that car for 15 years, but if you buy a bicycle, there’s a lot more maintenance.

But if a bicycle is the tool you want, not the car, then the bicycle is the right tool. So there, that’s really good to keep in mind. I’m wondering too, is part of the reason that this met your, your requirement of this is worth me talking about is that this has a pretty big heavy hitter in the form of Bill Gates as an investor and a backer.

That regardless of how you feel about Bill Gates, you don’t have to like Bill Gates, but you do have to recognize the man has an impact on the planet and his involvement is going to get a certain amount of attention that makes this, if somebody walked into a room and pitched this to a company. And then mentioned at the very end, Oh, and Bill Gates is backing this.

That’s going to carry

credibility. Yeah. It gives credibility. But that’s, that’s the reason, honestly, when I first read about this, I was kind of like, eh, it seems a little weird. And then I read about the Bill Gates stuff and I was like, wait a minute. Okay. Maybe I should look a little closer at this. It honestly was that, um, there’s.

The fact that such a heavy hitter, regardless of how you feel about him, and his track record, it just, it adds that layer of credibility that there might be something here that he was willing to use his organization to put some backing behind it because there seems to be something there. Uh, so maybe we shouldn’t discount it just offhand.

Let’s give them a shot and see what they can do. Uh, so for me, it’s, it’s not a, I’m not, I’m not going to be saying that this is going to work or not work, but I’m, I’m leaning towards the, I’m hopeful it works, but I’m highly skeptical.

Right. And before we end this conversation, just really quickly, if you take this tech and you pull Bill Gates out of it, and it’s just the tech itself, do you have any other things that have come across your radar where They don’t have the Bill Gates.

And you’re like, well, that’s, no, I’m not going to talk about that. Is there anything you could share with us here regarding the, like, I don’t think so.

There’s a lot. There’s a lot I could talk about. There are so many crazy ideas out there and people really trying to make them work. I don’t want to. Okay.

Even here, I don’t want to mention some of them. There is one in the wind sphere. There is one I would bring up. I’m not going to name a specific company, but I am highly skeptical of the kites. There’s a lot of, there’s several companies that are kind of gotten a name where they have these kites that they put up and the kites basically do these big figure eights in the sky.

And. The motion and all that stuff is captured through the movement and they turn it to electricity and it’s like, bravo, that’s, that’s great. That’s never going to be scale. It’s like, I just look at that and go, no, it’s like, there’s so many problems. You have a gigantic kite. Flapping around in the sky.

It’s like, how is, how is, what happens if the wind dies down? Does it just come crashing down? Does it like, like I’m just imagining as a little kid trying to fly a kite. And it’s like, how, how is that gonna work? 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Mm hmm. You know what I mean? It’s like, there’s so many, what happens if multiple kites are nearby and they.

Crash into each other. It’s like, what, what, what is the, I just, I just look at it and go, there’s, there’s, there’s no way. There’s no way there’s going to be scale. Small scale stuff, implementations of that. Bravo. You go for it. You be that niche player you, uh, but I just don’t see it being a big thing. So it’s like, there’s tech like that.

I’ve looked at numerous times and came on our radar for maybe we do a video about it and I just keep killing them because it’s like no it’s that’s just too out there it’s too out there for me

maybe maybe there’s an episode of undecided which covers like the top five really ideas I would love, I would love to talk about, like, I would love to talk about that.

Or maybe you would just do that here. Maybe it’s not even an Undecided. Maybe it’s just a, like, you come out and share five ideas with me and then we talk about them. Uh, yeah. So in the comments, let us know if you think that that would be interesting. Would you like to hear some of the, some of the more fringe ideas that Matt has come across?

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